Macau Mass Market Helps April Casino Revenue Outpace Expectations
The gaming sector in Macau exceeded analyst forecasts in April.
On Thursday, Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau announced that the gaming revenue for April reached MOP18.86 billion (US$2.36 billion). The count indicated a decrease of 4.1% from month to month but was up by 1.7% compared to April 2024.
Analysts agree that the gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to decrease by 1.25% year-over-year. The same analysts indicated that a better-than-anticipated Easter holiday concerning visitors and gaming in the Chinese Special Administrative Region, the sole area under China's control where casino gambling is allowed, contributed to surpassing the grim forecast.
Nonetheless, over the first four months of 2025, GGR has increased by under 1% (0.8%) to reach $9.57 billion. Before 2025, JPMorgan analysts estimated a 3% yearly increase in gaming winnings, a figure that now appears improbable.
Difficult Economic Circumstances
The gaming market in Macau is very different now compared to how it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. Beijing compelled the enclave's local authorities and police to expel VIP junket groups, resulting in a significant decrease in the number of high rollers present.
In 2022, as directed by President Xi Jinping during the relicensing of the six gaming operators, Macau mandated that Sands, Galaxy, Wynn, MGM, Melco, and SJM allocate over $16 billion towards nongaming facilities. The prevailing belief then was that this investment would transform Asia's Las Vegas into a more attractive location for families, sports, and business. So far, it hasn't been beneficial.
"The development of Macau’s diversified industries has not met expectations,” Macau Economy and Finance Secretary Tai Kin Ip conceded in April.
To reach its 2019 gaming figures where the six casino giants collectively earned over $36.5 billion, Macau’s casinos must adapt to serve the general public and the so-called “premium mass” players—gamblers who aren’t high rollers but still willing to lose tens of thousands per visit.
Concerns about the global economy have hindered Macau's capacity to draw in high-end gamblers. Even though May starts with the yearly Labor Day, which is expected to attract around 140K visitors daily from the mainland, and the latter half of 2025 is predicted to see some GGR growth, analysts attribute the reduction in their full-year revenue forecasts to the first four months. The 3% growth forecast from JPMorgan, made prior to 2025, was updated last month to anticipate a full-year GGR decline in 2024.
Effects of Trade Conflict
Tensions exist between the US and China, as President Donald Trump and Xi trade threats over tariffs. Earlier this week, Fitch Ratings indicated that there is minimal risk to the gaming concessions in Macau held by US companies, specifically Sands, Wynn, and MGM.
Since Trump assumed the presidency in 2016, there have been theories that China could exploit an advantage by endangering the licenses of the three casino firms that earn a significant share of their income from Macau.
Sands and Wynn maintain close connections to Trump. Steve Wynn has been a close friend and ally of Trump for many years. Dr. Miriam Adelson, Sands' main stakeholder, continues to be one of Trump’s strongest backers in his campaign.
