Prediction Markets Face European Backlash Amid World Cup Betting Frenzy
During the World Cup, nine European gambling regulators have united to warn soccer fans that unregulated prediction markets pose a significant risk of addiction and "financial ruin."
The gambling regulatory agencies of Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland have issued a joint statement cautioning the public against utilizing a prediction market to wager on the World Cup.
Regulators claim that prediction markets lack the same safeguards for responsible gambling and consumer protection as bookies.
"These platforms are not licensed. They don’t offer any safeguards and are open 24 hours a day. There are no built-in betting limits apart from the amounts staked, no time limits, identity checks to verify that users are of legal age, etc. The combination of visibility, accessibility, and the viral nature inherent to this type of platform creates a significant addictive cycle,” the release said.
“It is important to emphasize that this type of platform involves serious risks of illegality, fund blocking, fraud through insider information, and financial volatility. Furthermore, because they are unregulated in most countries, they can create serious addiction problems,” the statement continued.
The World Cup is a huge betting opportunity.
According to the most recent predictions, global betting on the 2026 World Cup is expected to surpass $60 billion on legal, regulated markets.
The volume is anticipated to be close to $600 billion when unregulated betting, including as local bookies and offshore sportsbooks, are taken into account. These numbers are from Gaming Compliance International, a company that advises governments and tribal countries on illegal gambling and regulatory compliance.
A large portion of the wagering will be on recently established prediction markets that provide trading on sporting events, such as all 104 World Cup matches. Predictstreet, a Gibraltar-licensed site supported by an Abu Dhabi-based firm, even has an official prediction market for the World Cup.
"We will be working closely together during this period, and in doing so, we will not only ensure that gambling operators comply with regulations on advertising, betting integrity, and player protection, but also act, where necessary, against prediction markets platforms that fail to comply with our local regulations,” the regulators said.
The iGaming and sports betting behemoth's prediction market, DraftKings Predictions, revealed that since the World Cup began on June 11, trading volume has increased by nearly 90%.
Are Odds Better in Prediction Markets?
Some traders claim prediction markets can provide higher returns since they are exempt from high state sports betting taxes. That isn't true for the clear winner of the World Cup.
For the 2026 World Cup, France is seen as the betting favorite. France's shares are trading at 19% implied odds on Kalshi. On such pricing, a $100 wager would yield $498. France has suggested chances of 20% at +400 on DraftKings. On those odds, a $100 wager would yield $500.
The trading fees of the prediction market platform would also apply to the Kalshi reward.
